洪水资源利用多目标风险决策模型研究
Multi-Objective Risk Decision Model of Flood Resources Utilization
摘要:
流域下游地区是著名的洪水走廊，过境洪水资源利用是该地区缓解水资源短缺和洪涝多发矛盾的战略举措。如何安全合理的利用过境洪水，既不增加防洪压力又能适量利用，是研究洪水资源利用必须解决的关键问题。本文对沂沭泗流域下游地区过境洪水资源利用风险因素进行识别，针对水库大坝安全风险和下泄流量超过安全泄量风险进行了风险估计，在此基础上，以过境洪水资源利用综合效益值最大化为目标，综合考虑洪水资源利用经济效益和风险损失，构建过境洪水资源利用风险决策模型，将风险决策模型计算得到的洪水资源利用综合效益值作为水库汛限水位调整的依据，最后以连云港市石梁河水库为例进行研究，为我国沿海平原地区过境洪水资源利用风险管理决策提供了借鉴。
Abstract:
The region of river downstream is the famous flood passage. Flood resources utilization is the strategic initiatives of alleviating water shortages and flood contradictory in the region. How to safely and rationally use flood is the key point to research the flood resources utilization. In the paper, the risk factors of flood resources utilization are identified in the downstream of Yishusi Basin. The risks of dam safety and discharged flow exceeding the safety discharge are evaluated. On the basis, the risk decision model is established, which aims at the maximizing comprehensive benefits of flood resources utilization, considering the economic benefits and risks loss of flood resource utilization. The calculation results of the model are taken as the basis for reservoir flood level adjustment. Finally, taking Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as a case study, the research provides a reference for flood resources utilization in the coastal plain area.
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